Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Q&A: Nepal's Future



Syangboche Khumjung Buddhist stupa and Mani wall mantras (celebratebig.com)

Maoists want Nepal to become a republic immediately. Nepal's new constituent assembly has started work following landmark elections in April. Its first task was abolishing the monarchy, which was 240 years old. BBC reports.

What is the purpose of the constituent assembly?

In the long-term, the assembly has approximately two years to draw up lasting new constitutional arrangements for a republic that can satisfy the disparate demands of the former Maoist rebels, the longer-standing mainstream political parties and other groups, including the newly assertive ethnic groups from southern Nepal who started violent protests for more representation last year.

In the short term, the assembly must sort out interim governing structures that will include a new role of president. It was agreed that the monarchy would be abolished on the first day the assembly met.

Will all this be easy?

Nepal's political parties have an inauspicious record when it comes to resolving political differences in a way that satisfies the general population.

The Maoists and the other main parties are trying to settle differences about whether the presidency should be a purely ceremonial role and how much power the prime minister should have in the current interim arrangements. They are also arguing about who should hold these posts.

The Maoists had been arguing that the presidency should be a powerful position and that it should be held by their leader, Prachanda. The other parties, who distrust the Maoists, have opposed this.

How strong are the Maoists?

The results of April's elections astonished everyone, including the Maoists, who had been expecting, at best, to be the third biggest party. Because of that, they had insisted that many of the seats be decided by proportional representation, rather than first-past-the-post. They emerged as the main party, with 220 of the 601 constituent assembly seats but would have done much better without proportional representation.

King Gyanendra is now a ceremonial figure, June 11 2008.

What happens to King Gyanendra?

The Maoists say he will be free to live in Nepal as an ordinary, tax-paying citizen. But he will have to vacate the royal palace in Kathmandu. He has various business interests.

Were the April elections peaceful?

Most observers were surprised that the elections passed off much more peacefully than previous votes in the 1990s, although there was some violence.

How did the elections come about?

The elections are part of the peace deal signed in 2006 between the interim coalition government and the former Maoist rebels.

There was public jubilation after the king climbed-down in 2006

The Maoists had pulled out of the coalition government in September 2007, accusing the government of violating the spirit of the deal, in which they say it was agreed that the monarchy should be abolished before the constituent assembly elections. Other parties in the interim government denied there had been such an agreement.

In a list of demands submitted to the government, the Maoists called for Nepal immediately to become a republic.

They also demanded that a commission should be established to investigate the disappearances of their supporters during Nepal's decade-long civil war, as well as better salaries for their former fighters, who they say are not being properly integrated into the country's army as agreed earlier this year.

Why did the Maoists suspend their armed struggle in November 2006?

The Maoists called a ceasefire after King Gyanendra ended his controversial direct rule in April 2006 and restored parliament.

The king backed down after weeks of strikes and protests against his rule which saw huge demonstrations against him.

Political parties who were then in opposition and now in government, had promised to work with the Maoists as a prelude to bringing them into government.

A titular "Hindu state," Nepal is predominantly Buddhist (i.phase.com)

Why did the king back down and agree to reconvene parliament?

The short answer is the sheer size of the demonstrations against him -- some of the biggest that the country has ever witnessed.

Faced with this vast display of people power, analysts say that the king had no choice but to back down or the country would have descended into anarchy.

Observers say with international pressure mounting on him and the mood among his opponents at home hardening, particularly after the deaths of a number of protesters at the hands of the security forces, the king had few other options.

The parliament that was in place up until the April 2008 elections effectively reduced the monarchy to a ceremonial role. It also ended Nepal's status as a Hindu state and turned it into a secular state.

Why did the king seize power in February, 2005?

He accused Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's government of failing to win the support of the Maoist rebels for a deadline for peace talks and of failing to prepare the ground for elections in the spring of 2005.

However, analysts suggest the king might have been using these issues to strengthen his own role in Nepalese politics, perhaps seeking to create an absolute monarchy.

Whatever his intentions, his plans backfired and he finds himself removed as monarch, having in effect catalysed his opponents and the rebels into forging peace.

How strong were the Maoists as a fighting force?

At the height of their insurrection, the Maoists were virtually in control of most of rural Nepal.

They were capable of launching enforced blockades of major towns and cities, showing they had the power to paralyse the economy.

As part of the ceasefire deal, both the rebels and the army agreed to put their arms beyond use under UN supervision, with former rebels confined to their bases at cantonments across the country.

Some analysts argue that the emergence in recent months of around a dozen armed groups in the south of the country -- all extremely hostile to the former rebels - has meant that their hold over this populous part of the country has been weakened. In the cities, their support has never been strong.

Where do the Maoists derive their ideology?

The Maoists claim to be inspired by Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong and want to establish a communist state.

Their shadowy leader's name, Prachanda, is translated as "the fierce one." The group is modelled on Peru's Maoist Shining Path guerrillas.

What was the human cost of the conflict?

More than 13,000 people were killed in violence in Nepal when the insurgency began, many of them civilians caught in cross-fire with security forces.

Both sides in the conflict were frequently accused of carrying out human rights abuses.

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